What Pennsylvania Polls Show as Both Candidates Hit Trail in Keystone State

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will campaign in different parts of the key swing state of Pennsylvania on Monday.
Harris is scheduled to speak in Erie, located in the state’s northwest corner, around 7 p.m., while Trump will address supporters in the southeastern suburbs of Philadelphia at approximately 6 p.m.
As the nation’s largest battleground state, with 19 electoral votes, both the Democratic nominee Harris and Republican nominee Trump have been making frequent visits to Pennsylvania.
Last weekend, Trump returned to Butler, the site of a previous assassination attempt, and earlier this week former President Barack Obama headlined a rally in Philadelphia in support of Harris’ campaign. Harris’ campaign stop tonight marks her 10th trip to Pennsylvania, while Trump has also recently visited Reading and Scranton.
In Pennsylvania, the most likely state to decide the election, Harris is currently polling 0.6 points ahead of Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver’s polling tracker shows that her lead is slightly bigger in the state, at 1 point. The Times’ aggregate poll has Harris leading 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, while The Hill has Harris at 48.6 percent and Trump at 48 percent.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in the Keystone State found Harris leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, by 3 percentage points.
The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10 and published on Saturday, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 47 percent. However, Harris’ lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. In addition, the poll reported that 3 percent of respondents didn’t know who they supported or refused to answer.
A Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov survey of 1,000 registered voters found Harris leading Trump in the state by 46.8 percent to 44.7 percent. The poll was conducted between September 24 and October 2, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.19 percentage points.
While Harris has a marginal lead in the state, some recent polls have indicated that a Trump victory in Pennsylvania is not out of the question.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters found Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point, with 49 percent of respondents backing Trump and 48 percent supporting Harris. The poll, conducted between October 5 and 8, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The city of Erie has a Democratic majority of about 94,000 people, according to The Associated Press. Erie is surrounded by suburbs and rural areas with a significant number of Republicans. Trump also visited Erie on September 29.
Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania said he’s “excited” that Harris is campaigning in Erie. In an appearance Monday morning on CNN Newsroom with Jim Acosta, Fetterman noted that Trump won Erie County and the state over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Biden claimed the county and Pennsylvania over Trump in 2020.
“Erie picks Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania will pick the president,” Fetterman predicted. “People are discussing how Pennsylvania is a small version of the United States, and Erie is a smaller version of Pennsylvania. It has rural, it has suburban and an urban core, as well, too.”
Fetterman also predicts another razor-thin presidential margin in the Keystone State.
“It’s going to be close, but the battle for the White House is going to be won in Pennsylvania,” he added.
The vice president needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump needs 51.
Harris’ clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia and flipping Pennsylvania.
Silver’s latest forecasts showed that Harris was narrowly on track to achieve this, although he said in late September that he believed the vice president’s campaign should be nervous about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Key issues such as Pennsylvania’s energy industry and natural gas fracking are expected to be prominent as they vie for the votes of the undecided electorate. With mail-in voting already underway, approximately 7 million Keystone State voters are anticipated to participate in the presidential race.
Trump’s town hall on Monday night will be held at the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center and Fairgrounds in suburban Oaks, aiming to boost turnout among his supporters.
On Tuesday, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, will travel to Western Pennsylvania for a series of campaign events, ending with a campaign rally and reception in Pittsburgh.
Newsweek has emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns on Monday morning for comment.