Middle East Steps Back From Brink of Larger War

With Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran finished, the Middle East appears to be drawing back—for now—from the brink of a wider war.
Complying with pressure from President Joe Biden to avoid hitting Iran’s nuclear facilities or energy-producing installations, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) focused on military sites such as air defense, missile and drone production, and launch sites early on Oct. 26.
The attack came in retaliation for Iran’s launch of nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1. Israel stated that most of them were downed but reports of damage to air bases emerged later.
Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu called the attack “precise and powerful” and said it met all of Israel’s objectives.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said on Oct. 28 that Iran “will use all available tools to deliver a definite and effective response to the Zionist regime [Israel].” He didn’t say how Iran would respond specifically.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his government will determine how best to respond and demonstrate Iran’s power to Israel, saying that the attack should “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.”
Iran’s state news agency reported that the damage had been limited and noted that air travel resumed as of 9 a.m. on Oct. 26.
A new Hebrew-language social media account on X for Khamenei was suspended a day after it was created when he posted, “The Zionist regime made a mistake” by deciding to retaliate.
The energy markets responded positively in early Oct. 28 trading. Oil prices tumbled almost $4 per barrel while Gulf regional stock indexes rose.
U.S. President Joe Biden called for a halt to the escalation that has raised fears of a wider Middle East war arising from the year-old Israeli–Hamas conflict in Gaza and Israel’s thrust into south Lebanon to stop terrorist group Hezbollah from sending rockets into northern Israel.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Iran could no longer use its proxies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel. The two groups “are no longer an effective tool” of Tehran, he said in a speech.
Gallant said Hamas was no longer functioning as a military network in Gaza and that Hezbollah’s senior command and most of its missile capabilities had been eliminated.
Israel indicated that it won’t go further if Iran holds its fire but threatened escalation if Iran launches a third missile barrage.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was not looking for war but would give an “appropriate response.”
Analysts say Tehran may opt to hold back from forcefully retaliating directly for now, because doing so might reveal its weaknesses and invite a more potent Israeli response.
“Iran will play down the impact of the strikes, which are in fact quite serious,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
She said Iran is “boxed in” by military and economic constraints and that the uncertainty caused by the U.S. election and its impact on American policy in the region.
The Oct. 26 attack of sites 1,000 miles from Israel came in waves, according to The Times of Israel. The first wave targeted Iran’s air defense, reportedly including sites in Syria.
The next waves hit drone and ballistic missile manufacturing sites, those used in Iran’s attacks on Israel on April 14 and Oct. 1, as well as launch sites. The targets were in and around Tehran and in two western Iranian provinces, Khuzestan and Ilam.
Satellite photos revealed two secretive military bases, in Parchin and Khojir outside Tehran, were damaged, according to The Associated Press. The plants manufactured missiles and mixed solid fuel for rocket engines. Analysts said the attack will make it more difficult for Iran to mount a future missile attack on Israel.
The Parchin base previously hosted tests of high explosives that could be used to trigger nuclear weapons, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran has denied having a nuclear weapons program.
Explosions were reported in and around Tehran at about 2:15 a.m. According to the Iranian military and state news agencies, four soldiers and one civilian were killed.
On the diplomatic front, some movement occurred in negotiations for a temporary Gaza cease-fire.
The head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency traveled to Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 27 for talks with CIA Director William Burns and the Qatari prime minister, Netanyahu’s office stated.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Oct. 27 proposed a two-day cease-fire for the exchange of four Israeli hostages in return for some Palestinian prisoners. However, Hamas has already rejected the proposal.
Diplomats said Israel is unlikely to move conclusively until after the U.S. presidential election.
The region has been at war since Hamas’s terrorist attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which left 1,200 people dead, thousands injured, and more than 250 abducted.